March 13, 2017 Fiscal Plan: avoids $67 billion deficit and projects +$7.9 billion

On March 13, 2017, AAFAF and the Government of Puerto Rico published the Fiscal Plan for Puerto Rico (San Juan, March 13, 2017). The document was prepared at the direction of the Oversight Board and replaces the prior administration’s December 2016 plan, which the Board had rejected.

According to the PDF itself, the plan aims at fiscal responsibility with revenue increases and targeted cuts. It states that it avoids the $67 billion fiscal deficit of the prior plan and projects +$7.9 billion of cumulative cash flow available for debt service over the 10-year period (also written $7.92B in one comparison vs the October plan).

The fiscal measures would reduce the 10-year financing gap by $39.6 billion. The text distinguishes cash flows pre-measures vs post-measures before debt service; one comparison says the October plan projected cumulative pre-debt-service cash flows of ($4.9 billion) vs +$7.92 billion in the current plan, with a net negative pre-measures impact of −$8.0 billion in an analytical bridge.

The plan discusses structural reforms and stabilizing corporate revenues via tax reform (one bridge attributes +$7.9B to revenue measures). It does not presume, the text says, cash flow for every type of debt instrument without allocation rules.

The document also discusses structural reforms as a growth axis and warns that any fiscal plan must commit to implementing operational changes, not just projections. Allocation of projected cash flow among different debt instruments is framed as a matter to resolve with explicit criteria — not as payment already executed.

In the bridge vs the October plan, the text separates the effect of baseline assumptions (−$8.0B pre-measures on one line) from revenue measures (+$7.9B) and the rest of the fiscal reforms that bring cumulative cash flow post-measures before debt service to about +$7.9B / $7.92B over 10 years.

AAFAF warns that it relied on preliminaries and unaudited 2015–2016 statements and that figures may change. Projection ≠ money disbursed or “theft”. Primary: AAFAF/docs.pr.gov PDF of March 13, 2017. Cousin: none.