The IAE posts three quarters down; there is a fight over whether it is a recession

On August 14, 2026, in its Economy index, El Vocero dates the reading of the Economic Activity Index of the Department of Economic Development and Commerce. In June the IAE stood at 126.8: down 0.2 percent from the prior month and down 0.6 percent from the year. It is not GDP. It is the index the DDEC publishes, and it is copied as it came out.

The quarterly series the newspaper reproduces falls three times in a row: 128.29 in the third quarter of 2025, then 127.88, then 127.07, and 126.93 in the second quarter of 2026. Some economists, according to the note, declare a recession. José I. Castañer does not. This magazine does not pick a side. It leaves both readings on the same curve.

José I. Castañer also offers an employment anchor that is not mixed with other outlets. He says average unemployment is around 5.6 percent, as in 2025. Eight days later, on August 22, NotiCel published the Department of Labor's July figures: adjusted unemployment of 6.0 percent, against 5.8 in June and 5.6 in July 2025; 75,000 unemployed; a labor force of 1,245,000; employed 1,171,000. José I. Castañer's 5.6 and July's 6.0 are not averaged here. They are different calendars, different outlets.

On May 14, 2026, NotiCel had reported that the Board reiterated a stagnation forecast for fiscal year 2026, with local growth flat in the second-quarter report. That May note does not publish June's IAE. This August note does not publish the 9 percent underspending versus forecast that NotiCel attributed to the Board in May. They are read together as context, not as a single table.

Three quarters down are three points on a series. Recession is a word some put down and José I. Castañer does not. El Vocero dated the fight. A two-quarter GDP threshold the clip does not bring is not invented, nor an employment count different from what each source already put on its day.

Source: El Vocero. https://www.elvocero.com/economia/la-econom-a-de-puerto-rico-acumula-tres-trimestres-en-baja/article_b8a98a90-8753-4f1e-b514-23386a62db05.html