The economy accumulates six straight months of contraction, according to the IIC

On July 17, 2026, Sin Comillas publishes that in May the Coincident Indicators Index registered the sixth consecutive reduction against the prior month. Economist Ángel Rivera Montañez, who prepares that index and the leading-indicators one, puts May's IIC at 109.4, a 0.4 percent drop. Against the same month last year, the index receded 1.2 percent, the fifth consecutive drop. The average value of the first 11 months of fiscal year 2026 shows, according to the note, a 0.5 percent reduction relative to the same period of the prior fiscal year.

Ángel Rivera Montañez describes signs of deterioration, with the labor market slowing and consumer confidence weakened. He asserts that Puerto Rico is entering a recession that will be short, followed by structural stagnation. The negative effects of the war in the Middle East, he says, exacerbated activity problems that had been coming since 2025. That reading is his, published by Sin Comillas. It does not turn this magazine into a cycle forecaster.

May's Leading Indicators Index fell 0.5 percent relative to the prior month. The economist adds that, excluding the Hurricane María drops in 2017 and the pandemic in 2020, this has been the strongest since the 2008 and 2009 mortgage crisis and since the start of the depression in 2006. He speaks of a fragile structural setting: limited productive capacity, institutional rigidities, and demographic pressures. He asks for policies and reforms aimed at allocating resources efficiently. It stays attributed.

On July 21, the same Sin Comillas will cover that nonfarm payroll employment fell in June for the first time in five months. On July 30 it will publish that inflation eased to 4.2 percent in June. They are three statistical releases, three dates. This note covers May's IIC and the sixth monthly contraction. Employment, prices, and the coincident index are not averaged.

Sin Comillas does not publish here the breakdown of each IIC component or a May job count. The 109.4, the 0.4, the 1.2, and the fiscal-average 0.5 stand. The reader who wants the full series has to go to the named source.

Source: Sin Comillas. https://sincomillas.com/la-economia-de-puerto-rico-acumula-seis-meses-consecutivos-de-contraccion/