Rivera Montañez: the IIC falls 0.5 percent in FY2026; he does not call a recession

On August 31, 2026, at 5:20 p.m., Sin Comillas reports, by Luisa García Pelatti, that Ángel Rivera Montañez puts the Coincident Indicators Index at −0.5 percent in fiscal year 2026, the first decline in six years. That closes, in his count, the expansion dating from 2020. He does not call a formal recession. If confirmed, he says, it would be short and moderate. This desk leaves that phrase in his mouth. It does not advance an NBER verdict.

In June the IIC stood at 109.7: +0.4 percent from May, −0.9 from a year earlier, the sixth straight year-on-year drop. In the first half of 2026, −1.1 percent. The Leading Indicators Index rose 0.4 percent in June, the first monthly gain in six months. The recession-probability analysis, Rivera Montañez says, shows four consecutive warning readings. Four warnings are not a declared recession. No winner is chosen. They are not averaged.

What remains is −0.5 for the fiscal year, 109.7 in June, and a no to a formal recession. A reader who wants García Pelatti on the 31st has the Sin Comillas URL at the foot. This is not original reporting.

Source: Sin Comillas. https://sincomillas.com/el-fin-de-la-expansion-economica/